We predict that the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will be enormous, exceeding that of the Industrial Revolution.
We wrote a scenario that represents our best guess about what that might look like. It’s informed by trend extrapolations, wargames, expert feedback, experience at OpenAI, and previous forecasting successes.
The CEOs of OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic have all predicted that AGI will arrive within the next 5 years. Sam Altman has said OpenAI is setting its sights on “superintelligence in the true sense of the word” and the “glorious future.”
What might that look like? We wrote AI 2027 to answer that question. Claims about the future are often frustratingly vague, so we tried to be as concrete and quantitative as possible, even though this means depicting one of many possible futures.
We wrote two endings: a “slowdown” and a “race” ending. However, AI 2027 is not a recommendation or exhortation. Our goal is predictive accuracy.
We encourage you to debate and counter this scenario.5 We hope to spark a broad conversation about where we’re headed and how to steer toward positive futures. We’re planning to give out thousands in prizes to the best alternative scenarios.
This is one among many items I will regularly tag in Pinboard as oegconnect, and automatically post tagged as #OEGConnect to Mastodon. Do you know of something else we should share like this? Just reply below and we will check it out.
Thank you for sharing the AI 2027 scenario and the expected trends regarding advanced artificial intelligence. It’s evident that superhuman AI will play a transformative role over the next decade, requiring deep discussions on how to navigate its impact responsibly.
From the shared insights, several key considerations come to mind:
How will fields like education, healthcare, economy, and security be influenced by the emergence of superintelligent AI?
Can we integrate advanced AI within ethical and regulatory frameworks to ensure responsible utilization?
How should communities and governments prepare for the challenges and opportunities associated with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in the upcoming years?
Having two scenarios— “slowdown” and “race” —provides intriguing perspectives on possible futures. However, exploring actionable strategies to ensure that AI development aligns with sustainable innovation and human well-being remains crucial.
I am keen to contribute to discussions about this vision and examine alternatives that could foster more balanced and inclusive outcomes for society.
Could you kindly provide guidance on how to participate in submitting alternative scenarios? I look forward to engaging with the community and contributing to this meaningful conversation.
I am glad, Wisal that you found the AI 2027 scenario of interest; it is rich in detail and presented very well.
Please note the “we” in the language is quoted from the AI 2027 scenario site and is not the “we” of OE Global.. The AI-Futures organization developed this. To follow this particular project, you can sign up for updates.
There is not much mention of education in these scenarios, but nothing stops any other groups from writing them, and others have done so, e.g.
Gidiotis, I., & Hrastinski, S. (2024). Imagining the future of artificial intelligence in education: a review of social science fiction. Learning, Media and Technology , 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/17439884.2024.2365829